COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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LAAU1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included
Lake Fork - Moon Lake Res- Mtn Home- Nr (LAAU1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  30  MP  70 Min
1      2017-1-1 106  87  75  64  53
2      2017-2-1 128 105  96  89  76
3      2017-3-1 129 116 108  99  84
4      2017-4-1 129 116 108 102  91
5      2017-5-1 120 106 101  93  89
6      2017-6-1 104 100  95  91  88
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date   p10   p30   p50   p70  p90   Obs
35  2016-12-09  82.9  64.1  51.3  44.4 30.9    NA
36  2016-12-10  82.1  63.7  51.3  44.3 30.9    NA
37  2016-12-11  86.3  68.0  54.7  47.2 34.3    NA
38  2016-12-12  86.8  68.5  53.9  47.5 34.7    NA
39  2016-12-13  86.7  67.2  52.9  47.4 34.5    NA
40  2016-12-14  86.4  65.9  51.0  47.4 33.9    NA
41  2016-12-15  87.5  67.7  52.8  48.2 35.2    NA
42  2016-12-16  90.5  70.7  55.5  50.5 38.3    NA
43  2016-12-17  93.1  73.7  58.0  52.6 41.0    NA
44  2016-12-18  93.0  72.9  57.5  52.6 40.1    NA
45  2016-12-19  92.9  72.0  57.2  52.3 38.8    NA
46  2016-12-20  93.2  72.5  57.2  51.4 39.1    NA
47  2016-12-21  91.7  72.5  56.5  51.3 39.1    NA
48  2016-12-22  89.1  72.5  56.4  50.3 38.8    NA
49  2016-12-23  88.9  70.8  56.2  49.4 38.4    NA
50  2016-12-24  88.8  70.5  56.3  49.3 38.1    NA
51  2016-12-25  95.6  76.9  60.7  53.9 42.1    NA
52  2016-12-26  96.1  77.2  61.0  53.5 42.4    NA
53  2016-12-27  96.8  76.8  61.3  54.1 42.6    NA
54  2016-12-28  97.3  77.8  62.3  55.0 43.3    NA
55  2016-12-29  96.6  77.7  62.3  54.7 43.3    NA
56  2016-12-30  93.9  77.6  62.3  54.4 43.3    NA
57  2016-12-31  92.8  77.6  62.4  54.3 43.2    NA
58  2017-01-01  92.0  77.4  62.3  54.2 43.1    NA
59  2017-01-02  92.0  76.6  62.2  54.0 42.9    NA
60  2017-01-03  99.1  81.6  67.5  59.2 47.4    NA
61  2017-01-04  99.9  82.4  68.5  60.0 48.0    NA
62  2017-01-05 105.2  87.3  74.3  64.6 52.2    NA
63  2017-01-06 105.9  86.4  74.9  65.0 52.9    NA
64  2017-01-07 105.9  86.5  74.7  63.6 52.7    NA
65  2017-01-08 107.4  87.8  76.1  64.9 53.6    NA
66  2017-01-09 110.5  90.5  78.6  66.3 55.5    NA
67  2017-01-10 118.1  96.2  83.1  72.0 60.9    NA
68  2017-01-11 122.4 100.1  86.2  75.5 64.3    NA
69  2017-01-12 127.5 105.8  92.8  80.6 70.4    NA
70  2017-01-13 128.1 105.1  92.7  81.2 69.8    NA
71  2017-01-14 126.9 105.2  92.7  81.1 69.9    NA
72  2017-01-15 126.7 104.8  92.7  81.0 69.8    NA
73  2017-01-16 125.9 104.7  92.5  81.0 69.8    NA
74  2017-01-17 122.2 101.7  89.9  78.4 67.6    NA
75  2017-01-18 120.2 101.5  89.1  78.2 67.5    NA
76  2017-01-19 120.2 101.2  87.9  78.1 67.4    NA
77  2017-01-20 120.0 101.6  88.0  78.4 67.7    NA
78  2017-01-21 119.5 100.8  87.9  78.6 67.7    NA
79  2017-01-22 120.1  99.4  88.3  79.0 68.2    NA
80  2017-01-23 119.6  99.5  88.4  79.0 68.4    NA
81  2017-01-24 128.7 108.4  96.4  87.2 76.1    NA
82  2017-01-25 129.2 107.3  97.1  87.6 76.8    NA
83  2017-01-26 129.8 105.8  96.3  88.0 77.4    NA
84  2017-01-27 129.8 105.3  95.9  87.6 77.4    NA
86  2017-01-29 130.8 104.4  95.9  87.9 77.7    NA
87  2017-01-30 130.5 104.3  95.8  87.8 76.1    NA
88  2017-01-31 129.4 104.1  94.8  87.7 75.1    NA
89  2017-02-01 128.9 103.4  94.1  87.0 74.9    NA
90  2017-02-02 128.7 102.9  93.6  84.6 74.9    NA
91  2017-02-03 128.3 103.0  91.9  84.7 75.0    NA
92  2017-02-04 128.2 102.9  91.4  84.7 73.7    NA
93  2017-02-05 128.7 103.4  92.1  85.5 74.2    NA
94  2017-02-06 129.9 105.8  94.2  87.7 76.2    NA
95  2017-02-07 133.5 108.5  97.4  91.2 78.4    NA
96  2017-02-08 133.0 109.4  98.0  92.3 77.4    NA
97  2017-02-09 133.5 110.6  99.3  93.7 75.9    NA
98  2017-02-10 129.3 109.6  98.9  93.0 75.2    NA
99  2017-02-11 128.9 110.3  99.4  91.3 75.9    NA
100 2017-02-12 128.9 110.5  99.3  90.4 76.1    NA
101 2017-02-13 127.6 108.3  98.7  89.8 76.1    NA
102 2017-02-14 126.7 107.9  98.7  88.0 75.5    NA
103 2017-02-15 126.8 108.0  99.9  88.8 76.4    NA
104 2017-02-16 124.0 108.0  99.8  88.5 76.1    NA
105 2017-02-17 123.4 107.4 100.3  87.6 76.4    NA
106 2017-02-18 122.8 107.9 100.3  87.4 76.5    NA
107 2017-02-19 123.0 108.2 101.6  88.4 77.1    NA
108 2017-02-20 123.9 109.2  99.4  89.4 77.9    NA
109 2017-02-21 130.3 112.5 104.7  94.8 82.9    NA
110 2017-02-22 130.6 113.7 106.0  96.1 84.1    NA
111 2017-02-23 133.7 117.1 108.8  99.5 86.9    NA
112 2017-02-24 131.6 117.7 109.0 100.0 87.4    NA
113 2017-02-25 131.1 117.9 109.0 100.2 85.0    NA
114 2017-02-26 131.5 118.1 109.3 100.4 85.1    NA
115 2017-02-27 130.6 117.9 109.0 100.0 85.1    NA
116 2017-02-28 128.9 116.9 107.6  98.8 83.6    NA
117 2017-03-01 128.6 116.6 107.1  98.9 83.3    NA
118 2017-03-02 128.4 116.3 106.7  98.9 83.2    NA
119 2017-03-03 128.4 116.2 106.5  97.6 83.1    NA
120 2017-03-04 128.1 114.4 106.1  97.3 82.8    NA
121 2017-03-05 128.0 111.3 105.9  95.9 82.8    NA
122 2017-03-06 127.9 109.7 105.6  95.4 82.7    NA
123 2017-03-07 127.8 109.2 105.4  94.8 82.2    NA
124 2017-03-08 127.3 109.1 105.4  95.0 81.2    NA
125 2017-03-09 126.2 108.9 104.7  93.6 81.2    NA
126 2017-03-10 125.8 108.8 103.6  93.6 80.7    NA
127 2017-03-11 126.0 108.3 102.0  93.6 80.8    NA
128 2017-03-12 124.8 107.7 102.0  93.5 80.3    NA
129 2017-03-13 124.3 107.5 101.6  93.5 80.2    NA
130 2017-03-14 122.7 106.7 101.5  93.1 79.1    NA
131 2017-03-15 122.2 105.1 100.7  92.9 79.0    NA
132 2017-03-16 121.0 104.5 100.4  92.8 78.9    NA
133 2017-03-17 120.1 103.9  99.3  92.3 78.4    NA
134 2017-03-18 120.1 103.8  98.3  92.1 77.9    NA
135 2017-03-19 119.9 102.9  97.1  92.0 76.8    NA
136 2017-03-20 119.7 102.0  96.0  91.9 76.6    NA
137 2017-03-21 118.6 101.0  95.6  91.3 75.9    NA
138 2017-03-22 116.9 100.7  94.8  89.9 74.8    NA
139 2017-03-23 121.0 104.5  98.8  93.7 78.5    NA
140 2017-03-24 121.7 105.1  99.6  94.0 79.4    NA
141 2017-03-25 121.3 104.5  99.7  94.0 79.6    NA
142 2017-03-26 121.0 105.0  99.7  94.5 80.3    NA
143 2017-03-27 120.1 104.6  98.6  93.8 80.3    NA
144 2017-03-28 121.9 107.0 100.7  96.4 82.7    NA
145 2017-03-29 119.0 105.3 100.5  94.2 82.4    NA
146 2017-03-30 118.6 105.1  98.8  93.5 82.1    NA
147 2017-03-31 120.8 108.1 101.0  95.8 84.0    NA
148 2017-04-01 121.9 109.8 102.9  97.6 85.8    NA
149 2017-04-02 122.3 109.0 100.7  95.8 85.1  0.19
150 2017-04-03 122.1 108.6 100.4  95.8 85.2  0.37
151 2017-04-04 121.5 108.4 100.0  95.9 85.2  0.54
152 2017-04-05 121.1 108.0 100.0  94.8 85.1  0.72
153 2017-04-06 121.1 107.9  99.8  94.8 84.9  0.85
154 2017-04-07 121.1 107.9  99.5  94.5 82.3  0.97
155 2017-04-08 119.5 106.6  98.1  93.1 81.8  1.10
156 2017-04-09 118.3 106.1  99.7  93.6 83.4  1.23
157 2017-04-10 117.7 106.9 101.0  94.3 84.5  1.36
158 2017-04-11 117.4 106.0  99.3  92.7 84.4  1.50
159 2017-04-12 117.3 105.8  99.2  91.8 84.3  1.64
160 2017-04-13 117.5 105.7  99.3  91.2 84.3  1.85
161 2017-04-14 117.2 106.0  99.2  91.1 83.5  2.18
162 2017-04-15 117.0 104.3  99.2  90.9 82.4  2.34
163 2017-04-16 116.7 103.8  99.1  90.6 81.8  2.50
164 2017-04-17 116.2 103.7  98.6  90.0 81.4  2.91
165 2017-04-18 116.0 103.6  97.2  89.8 81.3  3.24
166 2017-04-19 116.7 104.4  96.5  90.7 81.9  3.35
167 2017-04-20 117.1 104.8  95.1  90.7 82.0  3.71
168 2017-04-21 118.0 105.5  95.6  90.9 82.8  4.07
169 2017-04-22 118.3 105.2  95.8  90.2 83.1  4.44
170 2017-04-23 118.1 104.6  95.2  87.3 83.0  4.70
171 2017-04-24 118.0 103.6  95.3  87.4 83.3  4.98
172 2017-04-25 120.3 103.9  96.8  90.0 85.6  5.26
173 2017-04-26 119.8 103.9  97.1  90.4 85.9  5.56
174 2017-04-27 120.6 104.2  97.7  91.2 85.6  5.82
175 2017-04-28 121.5 105.3  98.4  91.3 86.4  6.11
176 2017-04-29 119.9 105.8  98.7  90.7 87.2  6.41
177 2017-04-30 116.7 105.7  98.2  90.2 87.1  6.59
178 2017-05-01 115.9 105.2  98.2  90.6 87.1  6.53
179 2017-05-02 114.5 102.8  97.8  90.0 86.7  6.68
180 2017-05-03 114.3 102.4  97.8  89.5 86.8  7.23
181 2017-05-04 114.7 102.6  98.0  88.9 86.4  7.44
182 2017-05-05 114.7 102.2  97.5  88.9 84.5  7.83
183 2017-05-06 114.0 101.8  97.3  88.7 84.2  8.14
184 2017-05-07 112.7 102.2  97.6  89.4 84.3  8.56
185 2017-05-08 112.5 101.4  97.3  88.1 83.6  9.30
186 2017-05-09 112.0 101.3  96.1  87.7 82.9 10.17
187 2017-05-10 110.9 100.1  95.9  88.0 83.1 11.14
188 2017-05-11 110.2  99.6  93.4  87.3 82.2 11.80
189 2017-05-12 110.4  99.3  91.7  87.7 82.6 13.09
190 2017-05-13 108.3  98.6  91.5  87.5 82.5 14.04
191 2017-05-14 106.5  98.4  91.8  87.1 83.0 15.55
192 2017-05-15 105.2  98.3  90.2  87.3 83.8 17.20
193 2017-05-16 103.8  97.7  89.6  86.9 83.5 18.61
194 2017-05-17 104.1  98.5  90.9  88.0 84.4 19.64
195 2017-05-18 105.6  99.8  92.6  89.4 85.9 20.84
196 2017-05-19 107.1 100.7  94.2  90.8 87.4 21.90
197 2017-05-20 106.6  97.0  93.4  90.0 86.6 22.56
198 2017-05-21 106.5  95.9  92.8  89.5 85.8 23.19
199 2017-05-22 107.3  96.6  92.7  89.9 86.3 23.88
200 2017-05-23 108.2  97.4  94.5  91.5 87.8 24.46
201 2017-05-24 106.6  97.2  93.8  91.4 87.1 24.87
202 2017-05-25 106.3  96.8  94.1  90.9 87.0 25.60
203 2017-05-26 105.3  96.9  94.7  91.3 87.4 26.81
204 2017-05-27 105.1  97.4  94.3  90.7 87.3 28.51
205 2017-05-28 104.9  97.1  94.4  90.5 88.0 30.03
206 2017-05-29 104.4  96.5  93.4  90.3 88.0 31.15
207 2017-05-30 103.8  96.2  93.0  90.3 87.7 32.31
209 2017-06-01 104.4  97.8  95.3  92.5 90.6 37.04
210 2017-06-02 105.3  98.5  96.6  93.7 91.9 39.09
211 2017-06-03 101.6  97.9  96.0  93.4 91.9 40.83
212 2017-06-04 101.3  98.1  96.4  93.7 91.9 43.05
213 2017-06-05 103.4  99.7  97.9  95.4 94.1 45.41
214 2017-06-06 102.8  98.9  97.9  95.7 94.4 47.71
215 2017-06-07 102.9  98.8  96.8  95.6 94.3 50.23
216 2017-06-08 101.7  97.8  95.7  94.4 92.9 52.59
217 2017-06-09 101.0  96.9  94.9  94.0 92.6 54.86
219 2017-06-11  98.9  96.2  94.5  93.6 92.8 58.70
220 2017-06-12  98.6  95.7  94.6  93.5 93.1 60.96
221 2017-06-13  99.0  96.1  94.6  93.8 93.5 62.62
222 2017-06-14  99.4  96.4  95.1  94.3 93.9 64.25
223 2017-06-15  99.4  97.0  95.8  95.0 94.4 65.19
224 2017-06-16  98.8  96.4  95.3  94.4 93.9 66.35
225 2017-06-17  98.4  96.3  95.3  94.3 93.9 67.41
226 2017-06-18  98.0  96.0  94.9  94.3 93.8 68.83
227 2017-06-19  97.8  96.0  95.0  94.4 94.1 70.34
228 2017-06-20  98.0  96.0  95.3  94.7 94.3 71.91
229 2017-06-21  97.1  95.5  94.8  94.2 93.8 72.93
230 2017-06-22  96.5  95.3  94.6  94.0 93.6 74.09
231 2017-06-23  96.5  95.4  94.6  94.1 93.6 75.46
232 2017-06-24  96.6  95.0  94.4  94.2 93.7 76.61
233 2017-06-25  94.8  93.3  92.8  92.6 92.2 77.05
234 2017-06-26  94.4  92.9  92.5  92.3 91.9 77.75
235 2017-06-27  93.9  92.6  92.2  91.9 91.7 78.41
236 2017-06-28  93.6  92.4  92.1  91.7 91.6 79.04
237 2017-06-29  92.9  92.0  91.7  91.4 91.3 79.71
238 2017-06-30  92.4  91.8  91.4  91.1 91.1 80.06
239 2017-07-01  90.8  90.3  89.9  89.6 89.6 79.08
240 2017-07-02  90.7  90.1  89.6  89.4 89.4 79.42
241 2017-07-03  90.4  89.7  89.4  89.3 89.3 79.93
242 2017-07-04  90.4  89.8  89.4  89.3 89.3 80.40
243 2017-07-05  90.4  89.8  89.4  89.3 89.3 80.85
244 2017-07-06  90.3  89.7  89.4  89.3 89.2 81.22
245 2017-07-07  90.1  89.6  89.3  89.2 89.2 81.57
246 2017-07-08  90.1  89.6  89.3  89.2 89.2 82.00
247 2017-07-09  90.0  89.5  89.2  89.2 89.1 82.33
248 2017-07-10  90.0  89.4  89.1  89.1 89.0 82.62
249 2017-07-11  89.5  88.9  88.6  88.6 88.6 82.89
250 2017-07-12  90.1  89.4  89.1  89.0 89.0 83.38
251 2017-07-13  90.1  89.3  89.0  89.0 89.0 83.72
252 2017-07-14  89.8  89.3  89.0  89.0 89.0 84.05
253 2017-07-15  89.9  89.3  89.1  89.0 89.0 84.47
254 2017-07-16  89.6  89.2  88.9  88.9 88.9 84.63
255 2017-07-17  89.5  89.0  88.9  88.8 88.8 84.89
256 2017-07-18  89.8  89.3  89.1  89.1 89.1 85.40
257 2017-07-19  89.8  89.2  89.1  89.0 89.0 85.65
258 2017-07-20  89.7  89.1  89.0  88.9 88.9 85.81
259 2017-07-21  89.5  89.1  88.9  88.9 88.9 86.10
260 2017-07-22  89.9  89.6  89.4  89.4 89.4 86.65
261 2017-07-23  90.1  89.8  89.7  89.7 89.7 87.26
262 2017-07-24  89.9  89.7  89.7  89.7 89.7 87.63
263 2017-07-25  90.2  90.0  89.9  89.9 89.9 88.15
264 2017-07-26  90.5  90.2  90.1  90.1 90.1 88.39
265 2017-07-27  90.1  90.0  90.0  90.0 90.0 88.58
266 2017-07-28  90.1  90.0  90.0  90.0 90.0 89.00
267 2017-07-29  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0 90.0 89.24
268 2017-07-30  90.1  90.1  90.1  90.1 90.1 89.65
269 2017-07-31  90.1  90.1  90.1  90.1 90.1 89.90
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 127.6 in 2011, Minimum of 26.7 in 2002, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 66/64.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.